As of now, its considered a toss Alicia Parlapiano Alicia Parlapiano The outcomes of the 6-8 contests that will most likely determine control of the U.S. Senate in the next Congress will depend to a large extent on the individual candidates and their campaigns. Along with explaining 84% of the variance in Senate election margins, the 3 variable model correctly predicted the winner of 154 of 170 contested races between 2012 and 2020. Alicia Parlapiano Kennedy Elliott Forecast Model Created & Designed by Logan Phillipsif(typeof ez_ad_units!='undefined'){ez_ad_units.push([[728,90],'racetothewh_com-medrectangle-3','ezslot_3',639,'0','0'])};__ez_fad_position('div-gpt-ad-racetothewh_com-medrectangle-3-0'); Looking for the National Picture for the 2022 Senate Forecast? GOP Rep. Rick Allen never faced a real threat to his reelection. These results suggest that Republicans have a slight edge in the 2022 Senate elections when it comes to potential seat swing based on the fundamentals in these The polls are now closed in Arizona, Colorado, Minnesota, New York, Wisconsin and several other states. Redistricting will change everything. Follow our live analysis and the latest updates. , Gov. Half of the Senate's thirty-four seats in the Missouri Senate were up for election every two years, with each Senator serving four-year terms.[1]. In Colorado, a measure to decriminalize certain psychedelics is close but yet to be decided. 465 Crestwood DriveP.O. 0 seconds of 4 minutes, 49 seconds Volume 90%. Can a moderate Republican keep holding on to a blue-trending suburban seat? Nov. 10, 2022, In Texas, majority-Hispanic counties also swung to the right, but to a much lesser degree than in Florida. Our election forecast is based on estimates for the outcomes of all Senate and House races. WebTexas Senate: With Democrats on Defense, Lone Star State Is a Reach Jessica Taylor March 29, 2023 Members Only Senate Overview The Looming Senate GOP Primary Wars Jessica Taylor March 7, 2023 Members Only Michigan Senate Michigan Senate: With Slotkin Announcement, Democrats Look to Avoid Primary Jessica Taylor February 28, Things have changed in this race since when I first rated it. Vance, a Republican and the Hillbilly Elegy author, is very likely to win Ohios Senate race, according to our estimates. Alicia Parlapiano While the 2 parties split these contests almost evenly, with Democratic candidates winning 89 contests and Republican candidates winning 85, there was considerable variation from year to year. Your guide to the midterm results, from Times reporters, Democrats held onto or gained trifectas in a number of states and fended off Republican supermajorities in others. Jennifer Rubin: Tammy Baldwin has picked the lock on split-ticket voters. In the current era, Democrats generally have to win contests in Republican-leaning states in order to win a majority of seats in the Senate. Prediction: Fetterman wins by 1-2%, 50-49 Democrats WISCONSIN: Mandela Barnes vs. Ron Johnson For several years, Johnson indicated he would not seek re-election in 2022, but here I am writing about him. Senate Projection. 2024 Senate races. Hes outperforming Biden across the state and is currently up 8 points in counties that were the closest in 2020. For example, in the 2012 Indiana Senate election, the Republican candidate was favored by just over 7 points but the Democratic candidate won by almost 6 points. Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly has opened a lead over Republican Blake Masters. , Angie Craig, Democrat, wins re-election to the U.S. House to represent Minnesotas Second Congressional District. Senator Lisa Murkowski, a Republican, is facing a strong challenge from the Trump-endorsed Kelly Tshibaka. Box 400806Charlottesville, VA 22904, 2020 By the Rector and Visitors of the University of Virginia. To view the purposes they believe they have legitimate interest for, or to object to this data processing use the vendor list link below. This work really does have to be done, right? See the rest of our predictions. Jen Kiggans, Republican, wins U.S. House seat to represent Virginias Second Congressional District. Races to watch include those in the 17th, 18th, 19th and 22nd Congressional Districts, as well as the contest for governor. GOP Rep. David Rouzer is coasting to reelection. Miles Coleman, and Larry J. Sabato. Looking for the Live House Forecast? Voters in these counties overall continued to support the Democratic candidate for governor, Beto ORourke. Despite endless hopeful invocations of but polls show that people like our positions, the truth is that the Democratic Party has been pulled far enough left that even lots of non-crazy people find us just plain scary something that Fox News takes vigorous advantage of. In Virginia, the performances of Democratic incumbents in the 2nd and 7th districts may offer early indications of how the party will fare in House races overall. Districts where the margin of victory was under 10%: Language links are at the top of the page across from the title. Maggie Astor Nate Cohn I'm Steve Shepard, and with the help of my smart colleagues And Kansas Democratic governor, Laura Kelly, is in a tight re-election race, as is Gov. Were forecasting the race to control the Senate and House, as well as each partys chance of winning the 36 governors seats up for election. Nov. 8, 2022, Because of the order in which different types of ballots are counted, early returns can be misleading. Web2022 Senate. Nov. 8, 2022, Six of the eight most competitive Senate races are in states that did not call a winner in the presidential race until after election night: Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. With Republicans enjoying a consistent lead of 2-3 points on the generic ballot according to the FiveThirtyEight polling average, the results indicated that the GOP was very likely to gain enough seats in November to take control of the House of Representatives. Georgias Senate race might culminate in a runoff election on Dec. 6 if no candidate receives 50 percent of the vote. We value on-the-ground sourcing above everything else. Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock and Republican Herschel Walker are on a November collision course in the most closely divided state of the 2020 presidential election. Particularly in the 2 decisive Georgia Senate runoffs held in early January 2021, Donald Trumps visibility and highly publicized claims of widespread voting fraud involving absentee ballots may have served to motivate Democratic voters while suppressing turnout among some Republican voters concerned that their votes would not be accurately counted. Is the challenger struggling to raise money? Albert Sun Nov. 8, 2022. Weve made future-oriented investments in infrastructure and tackling climate change. 1.2 Close races. Gov GOP Rep. Don Bacons race is one to watch. Most of the vote reporting so far is early, and Democrats are expected to win those votes by a large margin. Welcome to our. Andrew Fischer However, this has become increasingly difficult, as partisan polarization has deepened. Representative Sean Patrick Maloney has conceded defeat to Mike Lawler, a first-term Republican state assemblyman. Were tracking the remaining uncalled House races, and the most recently called races, as states continue to count the remaining votes. The Cook Political Report has updated its 2022 Senate outlook, with four races seen as more competitive than earlier in the year. Four counties all of which supported Trump in 2020 voted for Shapiro but chose Dr. Oz, the Republican, for the Senate. Is the nations political realignment driving a state or congressional district from one partys column to the other? , Gov. I've collected a few races I think you should keep your eyeon. Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly has opened a lead over Republican Blake Masters. Republicans' late primary complicates their quest to oust Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan in the nation's smallest swing state. An even greater discrepancy between predicted and actual results occurred in the 2017 Alabama special election in which ultra-conservative former state Supreme Court justice Roy Moore won a runoff primary against appointed incumbent Luther Strange to win the Republican nomination. State presidential partisanship was also a powerful predictor of Senate election results during these years, reflecting the increasing nationalization of these contests. In Wisconsin, Senator Ron Johnson, a Republican, is up for re-election against Lt. Gov. Nate Cohn Tonight, our election forecast will show live estimates for which party is favored to win control in the Senate and House. Nate Cohn When reported data comes in that is not what we expected, our model will update and incorporate this new data. Nate Cohn A lot of outlets do election ratings. The race for North Carolinas open Senate seat is leaning toward Representative Ted Budd, a Republican, according to our estimates. Nov. 8, 2022, In Kentucky, voters will decide whether to approve a constitutional amendment that would effectively ensure the implementation of a near-total abortion ban. that guide every prediction he makes. GOP Gov. Polls are now closed in Hawaii. Maggie Astor Maggie Astor Terms of service | Privacy Policy | Do not sell my info | Notice to California Residents, Design & development: Andrew Briz, Beatrice Jin, Arjun Kakkar, Andrew McGill, Allan James Vestal, Audience & strategy: Caroline Amenabar, Annie Bryan, Kam Burns, Isabel Dobrin, Annie Yu, Elana Zak. What all of these examples demonstrate, however, is that exceptionally popular or unpopular candidates or unusual circumstances can sometimes produce results in Senate contests that are well out of line with what would be expected based on factors such as presidential partisanship, incumbency, and the national political environment. at POLITICO, * Candidates need more than 50% of the total vote to win outright, which is reflected in the win probabilities. The most vulnerable GOP incumbent in the country might be Rep. Mike Garcia, whose district north of Los Angeles voted for President Joe Biden by 13 points. Our newest ratings and updates, Our Senate Election Forecast has been upgraded into a Live Election Forecast that will predict every Senate race in the Nation using the latest data from the election results. GOP Rep. Steve Chabot survived 2020, but Ohio''s new congressional map could be too steep a hill for him to climb. Nov. 9, 2022, Cortez Masto is behind in Nevada at the moment, but there are a lot of votes left in Clark and Washoe, counties home to the state's largest cities. Click here! John Fetterman has been locked in a bitter contest against Mehmet Oz, the Republican celebrity doctor. Kevin Drum (July 3, 2021). Nov. 8, 2022, Senator Raphael Warnock is out with an early lead in Georgia, but it could all be just a mirage. Everyone covered the Democratic Party being in a defensive crouch last year. GOP Sen. Ron Johnson is running for a third term making him the only Republican seeking reelection in a state President Biden won in 2020. The first polls are closing in Indiana and Kentucky. . In Ariz., Mont., Neb. Nov. 8, 2022, In Washington State, Senator Patty Murray is facing a strong Republican challenge, though she remains favored to win. Looking for ADHD is an illness, not a lifestyle. Note: Includes special elections held during year of election or during previous year. Does the incumbent in the race consistently overperform their partys baseline in the district? GOP Rep. Mark Amodei looks safe for reelection after surviving his primary. Current House. We expect the remaining vote that will decide control of Congress will take days, if not weeks, to count. Table 5: Model predictions for 2022 Senate elections. Much like the safe Republican states, the following states are a sure-shot for Democrats. While Tuesdays election represented a strong performance by a first-term presidents party, the individual showings of Senate candidates varied widely. One big obstacle to that coalition growth project is that Florida Gov. , Gov. Brian Kemp gained more votes compared to Trump in 2020 all across Georgia, beating Stacey Abrams by a more than seven-point margin. Here are my predictions for the top seven most competitive Senate races in the 2022 midterm election. Senate Election Forecast 2022: Ratings, Predictions & Key Races Advertisement The Senate Remains a Toss-Up Last updated Nov. 6, 2022, 9:19 p.m. We'll always be transparent about why we're making a certain rating. John Fetterman. His Republican challenger, Herschel Walker, is backed by Donald Trump. Throughout the 2022 elections, Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg offered up a counterintuitive diagnosis: Confident GOP predictions of a red wave Im Fivey Fox! We and our partners use cookies to Store and/or access information on a device. Remember me? Colorados Third District is leaning toward Lauren Boebert, an ardent supporter of Donald Trump, according to our estimates. Laura Kelly is Democrats' most vulnerable incumbent on the ballot this year. Updated daily, Ron Johnson Re-Election Polling and Predictions, Mark Kelly Re-Election Polling and Predictions, 2024 PollsPresidential ElectionSenateGOP PrimaryDem PrimaryBiden Approval Rating Tracker. Based on the fundamentals of state partisanship, incumbency, and the national political environment, Republicans have a good chance to pick up at least a seat and take back control of the upper chamber. Lazaro Gamio Republican Adam Laxalt is ahead in GOP-commissioned polling, though independent surveys still give Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto a chance. The 2022 Missouri State Senate election took place on November 8, 2022, as part of the biennial 2022 United States elections. Steve Shepard, our chief forecaster, has settled on four core principles Beto ORourke performed better than expected in these majority-Hispanic counties. Lauren Leatherby We got to 55 percent in Michigan. House Democrats' most iconoclastic member, Rep. Jared Golden, is betting his brand of centrism can overcome a challenging political environment. The red wave did not materialize, and election night ended with many close races that will be decided by mail-in ballots. These differences in results reflected differences in the partisan makeup of the 3 classes of Senate seats as well as differences in the national political environment at the time of each election. , Greg Landsman, Democrat, wins U.S. House seat to represent Ohios First Congressional District. Based on the above assumptions and expected results, the Democrats are set to gain 6 seats, bringing their tally to 56 seats. Albert Sun WebDemocrats will hold 51 seats in the Senate, providing the party with a majority that likely wont have to rely as heavily on Vice President Kamala Harris tie-breaking vote. Arizonas Senate race is a currently tossup, according to our estimates. Third, he would somehow have to obscure the rightward lurch he just went through in the current legislative session the six-week abortion ban, the permitless carry, the assaults on public education and diversity. Today, Democrats control the U.S. Senate by the slimmest of margins Vice President Kamala Harris serves as the tiebreaking vote in a chamber thats divided 50-50. Toggle Predictions subsection 1.1 Statewide. If a Trump cheerleader is the chosen candidate, it is a Democrat guaranteed victory. *. Virginias Seventh District is one of three races in the state that could offer an early sign of whether the Democrats can retain control of the House. The polls just closed in North Carolina, Ohio and West Virginia. Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto faces a tough race against Republican Adam Laxalt. Kathy Hochul claimed victory late Tuesday against Representative Lee Zeldin, a conservative Republican. Nov. 9, 2022, Democratic House candidates outperformed Biden in several Michigan districts, bucking a rightward trend and maintaining seven of their seats. Democrats need to go on offense on these issues. Democrat Katie Hobbs vs. Republican Kari Lake is one of the marquee races of the 2022 midterms. Tonight: follow live results and our forecast from Georgia as the final Senate seat in the 2022 midterm elections is decided. Overall, incumbents won 87% of their races. One of the most highly watched and dissected and forecastedbattles during the 2022 midterm elections is the Senate race. In order to estimate the contributions of state partisanship, incumbency, and election timing to the outcomes of Senate elections between 2012 and 2020, I conducted a multiple regression analysis with the Democratic candidates margin as the dependent variable. For the open Senate seat in Ohio, J.D. Nov. 8, 2022, Its still early, but Fetterman is running ahead of Biden in five Pennsylvania counties that have reported nearly all of their votes. The estimates for each race are based on the votes reported so far, how those places have voted in previous elections and the results of demographically similar places where votes have been counted. Voters in Vermont decided in favor of including abortion protections in their state constitution. Nate Cohn 2022 United States Senate election in Missouri, https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2022_Missouri_State_Senate_election&oldid=1152538134, 2022 state legislature elections in the United States, Short description with empty Wikidata description, Wikipedia articles in need of updating from April 2023, All Wikipedia articles in need of updating, Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License 3.0, This page was last edited on 30 April 2023, at 21:09. Reporting and analysis from the Hill and the White House, The analyst who saw through 2022s red mirage has a prediction for Biden 2024. To retain control of the House, Democrats must win 46 of these seats (after accounting for the races the parties are expected to win most easily). The table includes the state, type of Senate race, predicted Democratic margin, and classification into 1 of 6 categories: Uncompetitive Democratic, Potentially Competitive Democratic, Very Competitive Democratic, Very Competitive Republican, Potentially Competitive Republican, and Uncompetitive Republican. These ballots, which in 2020 favored Trump, were not enough to tilt the election in favor of the Republican candidate Kari Lake. Nov. 8, 2022, The Timess election forecast is now running. All 3 predictors had highly significant effects, with state presidential partisanship having the strongest influence. Republicans' South Texas surge could net them this congressional seat. George Santos, Republican, wins U.S. House seat to represent New Yorks Third Congressional District. Jason Kao Web2022. Republican candidates won 83 out of 170 contested Senate races between 2012 and 2020, but the prediction model indicates that they should have won 91. The media has given Oz and Walker plenty of attention as the GOPs worst Senate candidates, but Johnson might be right RCP Senate Map Race Changes. Senator Raphael Warnock of Georgia, a Democrat, won a runoff election to defeat Herschel Walker, a Trump-backed Republican and former football star. Reporting by Grace Ashford, Maggie Astor, Michael C. Bender, Sarah Borell, Sarah Cahalan, Emily Cochrane, Nick Corasaniti, Jill Cowan, Catie Edmondson, Reid J. Epstein, Nicholas Fandos, Lalena Fisher, Trip Gabriel, Katie Glueck, J. 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